Published sizes for the UK home improvement market run from about £11 billion to about £44 billion, for roughly the same period. That is a fourfold spread, and nobody in it is wrong. Three different things are being counted and almost nobody says which.
This report separates them, then covers the part that matters more than the headline number: a certification regime that is being rebuilt right now, with a migration deadline and an open government consultation that closes in September 2026.
What the sources actually say
Dollar figures are converted at USD 1 to GBP 0.79, the approximate rate through mid 2026, with the published figure alongside.
| As published | In sterling | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| £11.2bn (2024) | £11.2bn | Home improvement market | Primethorpe Paving |
| £14.7bn (2026) | £14.7bn | Hardware and home improvement stores | IBISWorld |
| USD 15.0bn (2025) | about £11.9bn | UK home improvement market | IMARC Group |
| USD 23.57bn (2026) | about £18.6bn | DIY home improvement retailing | Primethorpe, citing market data |
| USD 55.85bn (2025) | about £44.1bn | UK home improvement market | Deep Market Insights |
Three distinct measures are hiding in that table.
| What is being counted | Roughly | Who reports it this way |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales of materials and tools | £11bn to £19bn | IBISWorld, IMARC, the DIY retailing figures |
| Consumer spend including installed labour | £40bn and above | Deep Market Insights |
| One channel or category | Varies widely | Most of the rest |
The gap between the retail measures and the consumer spend measure is mostly labour. A homeowner spending £12,000 on a kitchen generates perhaps £4,000 of materials. Count the materials and you get one market. Count the invoice and you get a much larger one. Both are legitimate and they are not interchangeable.
For anyone selling installed work, the retail figures describe a market they are not in.
The contradiction worth understanding
Every forecast house in that list projects growth. IMARC puts the compound rate at 4.28 per cent to 2034. Deep Market Insights forecasts a rise to about USD 84 billion by 2034.
IBISWorld reports the hardware and home improvement retail segment shrinking, at about -0.9 per cent in 2026 and a compound -1.6 per cent across 2021 to 2026.
These are not in conflict once you accept they measure different halves. Retail sheds are contracting while installed work grows, and that is what a shift from do it yourself toward done for you looks like in the data. Fewer people buying materials to fit themselves, more people paying someone else.
That reading is consistent with the demand side. MyBuilder's Renovation Nation report for 2026 found 27 per cent of homeowners more likely to invest in home improvements this year, with kitchens up 19 per cent. Rising intent to spend alongside falling retail sales points at the same conclusion.
If you install, the declining number is the one your competitors will quote at you and the one you should ignore.
The certification regime is being rebuilt
This is the part with dates attached, and it is the reason to read this report rather than a market size summary.
What the current patchwork looks like
| Body | What it covers |
|---|---|
| MCS | Technical certification for renewables installs, meaning solar, heat pumps and batteries. |
| RECC, HIES, Flexi-Orb | Consumer codes an MCS installer must join, covering deposits, warranties and complaints. |
| TrustMark | Government endorsed quality scheme, required for insulation-only installers. |
| Competent person schemes | Self certification of building regulations compliance for specific trades. |
An installer can therefore hold MCS certification, membership of a consumer code, and TrustMark registration, and a homeowner is expected to understand what each one means. Most do not.
Two changes with dates
The redeveloped MCS installer scheme went live in March 2026, with the first certification bodies opening to applicants. Every existing MCS installer must move across by 31 March 2027, and an approved financial protection product is now mandatory on every certified installation.
Separately, on 17 June 2026 the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero opened a consultation, Reforming Consumer Protection for Home Upgrade Schemes, which closes on 10 September 2026. The proposal would replace the MCS, TrustMark, RECC and HIES patchwork with a single government-accountable body and a public register of approved installers.
If that proceeds, the accreditation logos currently used as trust signals across this sector change or disappear. Any installer whose marketing leans on a badge should know the badge is under review, and any agency building a website around those logos should be asking about it now.
What constrains marketing in this sector
Home improvement has no equivalent of the prescription only medicine rule that shapes aesthetics marketing. It has a different set, mostly around how a sale is made rather than what may be said about a product.
- Most home improvement sales are off-premises contracts under the Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation and Additional Charges) Regulations 2013, because they are agreed in the customer's home.
- That triggers a statutory 14 day cooling-off period, mandatory pre-contract information, and written confirmation on a durable medium.
- Work cannot lawfully begin inside the cooling-off period unless the customer expressly requests it and acknowledges the effect on their right to cancel. Getting this wrong is common and expensive.
- Green and efficiency claims are a live CMA enforcement area. Savings figures, payback periods and carbon claims all need substantiation, and the CMA has taken undertakings from major retailers over green claims.
- Further consumer protection provisions under the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act are expected to commence through 2026, with some elements anticipated in the autumn.
The practical version. Pressure selling in the home is the highest risk sales practice in this sector, savings claims are the highest risk marketing claim, and both are enforced by bodies with real powers.
What we would want to know and cannot
- No published reconciliation exists between the retail measures and the consumer spend measures, so the fourfold spread persists unexplained.
- The split between DIY and installed work is not published as a time series, so the shift is inferred rather than measured.
- Average project values by category are not published in any form we could verify.
- How many installers hold each accreditation is not published as a running total, so the size of the population affected by the MCS migration is unclear.
- Lead cost and conversion benchmarks circulate privately and never with methodology attached.
How to read any home improvement statistic
Three questions. Is it retail sales of materials or total consumer spend including labour, because that is most of the fourfold gap. Is it the whole market or one channel such as DIY retailing. And is it converted from dollars, because several are and almost none say so.
Sources
- IBISWorld. Hardware and Home Improvement Stores in the UK, 2026, for the retail segment size and decline.
- IMARC Group. UK Home Improvement Market, 2025 to 2034.
- Deep Market Insights. United Kingdom Home Improvement Market, 2025 to 2034.
- Primethorpe Paving. Home Improvement Statistics UK 2026 and DIY Statistics UK 2026, March 2026.
- MyBuilder. Renovation Nation Report 2026, April 2026, for homeowner intent data.
- MCS. Redeveloped installer scheme, live March 2026, migration deadline 31 March 2027.
- Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Reforming Consumer Protection for Home Upgrade Schemes, consultation opened 17 June 2026, closing 10 September 2026.
- Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation and Additional Charges) Regulations 2013.
- Competition and Markets Authority, green claims enforcement.
Figures and regulatory positions change. This report was last reviewed in July 2026. If you spot an error, tell us and we will correct it and note the change.
